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Pearl Legend Hold and Win Slot Review


Pearl Legend: Hold and Win is a new release which is coming from iSoftBet, a slot machine with a Chinese concentration and utilizing a lot of the designs that are normal for their games. Some of the features included will be familiar to you, as the Hold and Win a part of the title suggests there are a few things which are unique also.You are playing on 5×3 reels with 20 paylines being used each round. Pearl Legend: Hold and Win can deliver top wins of 1,250x the stake but its standard mixes offer maximum of 500x. It has a 96% RTP, while for its huge features there will be Wilds, Pearl scatters, the Pearl Legend Respins, Reel Boosters and regular game modifiers.Betting and Prizes 20 coins are being used and you simply pick their value, in a range of $0.01 to $1. The wagering range coming from this will go from $0.20 to $20.Wins of up to 1,250x the stake can be paid during Respins, which implies that you could leave with $25,000 cash, by utilizing the most extreme wager of $20. Standard wins of up to 500x the stake per spin are delivered during gameplay, utilizing mixes made out of Gold Dragons.A 96% RTP reveals to us that the amount getting back into the pockets of its players is about the same in other slot games.Pearl Legend: Hold and Win Slot Features Anytime you see the Yin Yang image on the reels, it will be joined by the Wild logo, so it will be the substitute which you can use to place along with standard images and get new wins. You can’t have it do likewise for the scatter but that is a standard limitation.There are a few game modifiers which you may use during paid spins. Red Gems will give you 3 to 5 wilds on the reels. Blue Gems will change images into Pearl scatters. There is likewise a Dragon sculpture, which will change Royals to high value images.The Pearls are your scatters and landing at least 5 out of a single spin will take you to the Pearl Legend Respins reward. Both the setting off Pearls and any new ones that go along, will get sticky on the reels. You start with 3 respins but you reset the number on the off chance that you get extra Pearls before the rounds are totally consumed.Pearls may appear during Respins and they can bring certain Boosters, given that you get three that match.Blue Gems: will open up to three extra rows (Reels Boosted).Green Gems: give the Pearl prizes a boost (Values Boosted).Red Gems: gives you 1 extra respin (Spins+ Boosted).Purple Gems: the multiplier goes up as high as 10x (Multiplier Boosted).Theme and Design As far as Chinese themes go, the one from Pearl Legend looks standard. The six images we see are basic in such games, as we’re taking a look at Yin Yang signs for the wilds, a Pearl as scatter alongside premium images with the Dragon, Phoenix Bird, 3 Gold Coins, Frog. The other four base paying images are the ones showing Royals. With everything taken into account, it’s a standard look for such slots. The activity seems, by all accounts, to be put placed in a temple, where we see on the left side a living Dragon holding a pearl in its claws.ConclusionPearl Legend: Hold and Win is definitely not a terrible slot machine, especially as they changed a few things about its major feature, they didn’t just clone the same reward game that every other person is using lately.

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Is Hellmuth vs Negreanu happening?


We recap some stories you may have missed including a huge PKO event and how much of himself is Landon Tice playing for?

KidPoker vs the Poker Brat?
We hinted at it last week and now it seems confirmed that Daniel Negreanu and Phil Hellmuth will play heads-up. 
Given both men are traditionally live players it seems inevitable that it will be face to face and streamed on PokerGO. 
The early betting markets have suggested Hellmuth is the favourite, which seems ludicrous given how much Negreanu improved in his heads-up challenge against Doug Polk. 

Happy to play anyone on @PokerGo App’s “High Stakes Duel.” Looks like they are bringing me the GREAT Daniel Negreanu @RealKidPoker, the guy that studied heads up for months w coaches I respect, so be it. It will be a great challenge for me! Hoping I don’t look like THIS photo!! pic.twitter.com/EpE1BqRMWP
— phil_hellmuth (@phil_hellmuth) February 13, 2021

Tice has skin in the game
The other big heads-up match in the works is Landon Tice vs Bill Perkins, and it has been the subject of a lot of debate this last week.
Namely, how much does the poker wunderkind Landon Tice have invested in himself? Rumours circulated that he is playing for just 10% of himself in this challenge where he is already paying Bill Perkins $720,000 to play. 
Tice confirmed that he has sold a lot of action for this event but while his percentage is low, it still means he has a lot of his net worth on the line:

Let me make something clear that I’m sure everyone cares about regarding my challenge with @bp22 I’m selling a lot of action for it. A lot.I’m not rolled to battle at nosebleeds. However, I am putting a very large amount of my relative net worth on myself winning it.
— Landon (@LandonTice) February 11, 2021

MicroMillions the biggest PKO ever?
The MicroMillions Main Event was a PKO for the first time in its history and it (probably) automatically became the biggest field ever for a progressive knockout tournament. 
49,487 entries for the $22 Main Event, which was not quite enough to hit the $1 million guarantee. 
It did lead to one player bagging almost $60,000 for their troubles including $18,651.13 in bounties alone:

The final table

Table stakes only
OK, so this week’s meme classic from Reddit beats all those ‘toilet roll poker home game’ jokes from last year:
When Polaks Play Poker from r/poker

Will we see Hellmuth vs Negreanu heads-up? Let us know in the comments:

Barry Carter
Barry Carter is the editor of PokerStrategy.com and the co-author of The Mental Game of Poker 1 & 2, Poker Satellite Strategy and PKO Poker Strategy



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Silver Trails’ Slot Review


A title like Silver Trails offers a Wild West theme. Notwithstanding this well known theme, this present Novomatic’s slot has 5 reels, 3 rows and 243 different ways to win. In spite of these features, the game has various and interesting things on offer.The Wilds and Scatters are essential for the combination and they carry multipliers with them just as a Jackpot Feature which allows you to win one of 4 different bonanzas. A bet feature is likewise available.Betting and Prizes Much the same as in most slot games, you’ll need to match identical images to get prizes. You can get 3 images in a combo and win a prize. Be that as it may, you can likewise get 4 or 5 of them and improve prize. As said earlier, this game allows you to win one out of 4 bonanzas. They are the Mini, Minor, Major, and Grand bonanzas. Silver Trails has a lot to offer.Silver Trails’ Slot Features Since the royal card images are very famous you’ll see them in this title too. They are joined by the 10 image just as images that fit the theme. These are the revolver and bullet, the cowboy and others.Normally, there are some exceptional images in the combination. The Wild is the first and it seems stacked on reels 2 and 4. Other than this one, you additionally have the Silver Star image which is the Scatter one. At the point when it lands on reels 1, 3, or 5 you’ll get a multiplier that equals the sum on the stars that landed.Also, the Scatter is liable for another feature too. However, for that, you’ll need at least 6 Scatters to trigger this feature. When this occurs, the images that set off the feature remain and place, and you get 3 Bonus spins. The counter moves to 3 when you land another Scatter.On the off chance that you are able to cover the whole reels with the Silver Star image, you’ll get the Grand Jackpot. Then again, you can get any of the other 3. Strong multipliers are additionally important for this feature and they can get as high as 20x your stake.The last feature that allows you to increase your rewards is the Gamble feature. In any case, it’s a dangerous feature as you can lose them on the off chance that you don’t play it right.Theme and Design With Silver Trails slot fans are given another title that is motivated by the Wild West. The images and the background of the game look stunning and the game mechanics are impeccable. At long last, the game’s engineers didn’t mix out the opportunity to make this a mobile-friendly game too.ConclusionSilver Trails takes you to the Wild West and allows you to earn huge prizes. Because of the Jackpot feature you can leave with 1 out of 4 magnificent bonanzas. On the other hand, you can try our the bet feature and appreciate the multipliers that come with the Silver Stars. Wilds are in the combination too.

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Did the next Macau bubble just start two weeks ago?


The entire concept of a “bull market in stocks” makes little sense. Sound crazy? These days, certainly, because we’re always hearing about a perpetual bull market in stocks. Valuations increasingly disconnected from economic reality, asset bubbles in one class or another, armies of speculators moving like zombie hoards descending on the next fad and blowing it up to infinity and beyond, Buzz Lightyear-like.Why is the whole concept of a bull market generally, nonsense? Because if the value of everything is going up simultaneously, then nothing is going up. If everyone is a superhero, nobody is. If, in an imaginary economy, absolutely everything costs, say, $5, (labor, land, capital whatever) and then the next day everything costs $10, then what’s changed? The answer is absolutely nothing.The only thing that matters is relative valuations between asset classes. Let’s divide them into three of the most basic ones. Equities (stocks), bonds (debt), and commodities (consumer goods). If all three are going up in tandem, then there is no “bull market” in anything. If commodities are going up faster than stocks and bonds, you have inflation, or even hyperinflation. Ask anyone in Venezuela whether they care that their stock market is doing great, nominally. They don’t. They’re looking for their next glop of gruel or morsel of moldy bread to survive the day.But if stocks and bonds are rising and consumer goods are static to falling, you have a bull market in financial assets. This is where we are now. And boy are we really hard and deep into it now. Below is the ratio of the S&P 500 to the CRB Commodities Index.And I’ve got news for everyone. This bull market in stocks relative to consumer goods in dollar terms is already over. It ended almost a year ago. On April 20, 2020 to be exact. Red circle blowoff top above. That was when oil crashed to negative $35 a barrel and we all lived in an alternative financial freakhouse universe. But I have more news than that. This entire “bull market” in stocks has been one gigantic illusion from the very beginning. Stocks aren’t going up. They haven’t gone up for 21 years. Money is going down. Here is the graph of stocks relative to the prime monetary commodity, gold, over the same timeframe above.We can see here that from 1990 to 2000, we had a real bull market in stocks. Equities rocketed in gold terms and in terms of consumer goods generally. Everyone felt richer. Portfolios up, expenses down. But since that time, money has been dying at an accelerated pace and the standard of living has fallen.The bull market in stocks over the last 21 years has been an illusion, a tiny echo of the bull that ended at the turn of the century. We have spent the last 21 years trying to reinflate it, but gold has exposed the lie. We are now at the point where the illusion is about to collapse completely. In my view, we have only a few months left until it all hits the fan. Until then, the bubbles will keep coming in staccato frenetic fashion, moving from one asset class to another faster and faster, until we all get so dizzy we can’t follow it anymore. Last week I speculated that maybe the next target for the zombie hoard will be in penny gaming stocks. I was close. It’s in Macau stocks. It may already have started two weeks ago. The frenzy has started over news about China opening up again. I mean, just look at this crazy chart of the Macau proxy ETF:That last surge higher is just since February 1. We could be at the beginning of a crazy but brief ride higher in Macau stocks right now. New all time highs again, and Macau isn’t even fully open yet. The latest full month statistics for December show a 78.6% drop in visitors year over year. And yet we’re at new all time highs in these stocks already. It’s just completely crazy. I can understand the Macau opening up again trade, but to argue that this factor is being priced in at these levels, at new all time highs? As if none of this full year shutdown hurt any of the casinos fundamentally at all? That’s just totally bonkers crazy. It’s a reflection of the value of the currency these stocks are priced in, not the stocks themselves.What’s happening is that the zombie hoard of bubble chasers is reading the headlines regarding China starting to open up again, and they’re slamming buy orders and call options like they’ve been doing with tech stocks and Gamestop and BTC and all the other fads. We just got news out of Bloomberg that China’s Imax had a face-ripping rally due to exploding ticket sales. China is, indeed opening up, and the zombie hoard of speculators is now going to spray their money hoses at anything Chinese. Macau might be at the center of it.How high can this Macau bubble go, if that’s what we just saw start two weeks ago? The truth is, it doesn’t matter. If you get into it, you’ll get hooked and keep levering yourself up, counting your paper gains, unable to separate from them until you get caught in a vortex. At some point, my view this year, it’s all going to come crashing down when all the damage from 2020 is finally revealed all over the world. You can’t paper it over forever. The damage to Macau casinos doesn’t just go away. It festers in the form of more and more debt, and a damaged consumer base that can no longer patronize casinos in the way it once could. Festering wounds need the paper bandage removed and they need to be operated on. That is painful. And it’s coming.When we think of the word “bubble”, what are we really talking about? A bubble is something that looks, from the outside, to be really big and stable. The shape of it, a sphere, is the most stable shape in the universe. It’s why planets, stars, moons, and possibly even the spacetime continuum itself, spontaneously shape themselves into spheres. The force of gravity equalizes at every point on the sphere, forming equilibrium. Nature always seeks equilibrium. And so bubbles take on the illusion of stability, but unlike a real sphere, there’s nothing inside them. When they pop, they are gone almost instantly. This one is about to pop. Macau appears to be the next victim sucked up by the bubble. Macau will survive and rebuild. The question is, in what form? I wouldn’t take a bet the depended on me getting the answer to that question right.

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Addabbo Confident New York Mobile Sports Betting Can Launch This Year


Posted on: February 15, 2021, 10:16h. 
Last updated on: February 15, 2021, 10:32h.

Steve Bittenbender

Read MoreNew York state Sen. Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D-Queens), the lawmaker spearheading the push for the Empire State to embrace mobile sports betting, doesn’t just believe the state legislature will pass a bill soon to expand sports betting in the state.
New York state Sen. Joseph Addabbo Jr. takes part in a swearing-in ceremony for his seventh term last month. Addabbo is a leading lawmaker pushing to legalize mobile sports betting in the state. (Image: NYSenate.gov)He also believes the first bets could take place later this year.“I remain optimistic that should it be in the budget April 1st, with a little initiative, our state government can get it up and running by Sept. 9th, which is the first day of the NFL football season,” Addabbo told Casino.org in an interview.It’s been nearly three years since the US Supreme Court opened the door for sports betting nationwide. New York did take advantage and approve retail licenses for its four upstate casino resorts. In addition, Class III tribal casinos are also allowed to offer sportsbooks on their properties.However, analysts and observers point out that New York misses out on a significant revenue stream since it does not allow mobile applications.For example: According to the New York State Gaming Commission, the four retail sportsbooks in the state generated revenue totaling nearly $3.6 million in January. Over the same month, Indiana – a state with roughly a third of New York’s population – saw its mobile and retail operators earn $29.3 million in taxable revenue.The senator said New York usually leads the way when it comes to state policy.“We’re that car in the right lane with four wobbly wheels, and we’re limping along,” Addabbo said. “And these other fast cars like (New) Jersey and Pennsylvania are whizzing by us. That’s an odd spot for New York to be in.”Sports Betting Part of NY Budget TalksA recent study by Spectrum Gaming estimated that mobile sports betting could generate more than $1 billion in gross revenue for New York operators. If the state sets the tax rate at 10 percent, that would mean more than $100 million in annual revenue.Addabbo’s bill, Senate Bill S1183, as well as legislation sponsored by state Assemblyman Gary Pretlow (D-Mount Vernon), sets the rate an 8.5 percent. However, that rate, like other portions of the bill are open to negotiation, the senator said.The senator also noted that the original sports betting bill he filed a couple of years ago gave each casino one skin. Now, the bill offers them two, which means a potential of 14 skins, or mobile operators, for the state once the three downstate casinos are awarded.I think that’s all part of the budget negotiations,” Addabbo told Casino.org. “How many skins and the license fee and the tax rate that is all part and parcel of the budget negotiations. It’s all part of the discussions that we’re going to have, and that’s where we’ll have to come to some agreement.”Still, time is of the essence.April 1, the start of New York’s budget year, is just 45 days away as of Monday. While that’s six and a half weeks, as Gov. Andrew Cuomo told reporters Monday, “in government, 45 days is a blink of an eye.”Addabbo Concerned State-Run System Can’t Meet DemandThe good news is that Cuomo is on board with expanding sports betting in the state to include online applications. The bad news is, his vision for sports betting varies significantly from that of Addabbo and Pretlow. Those lawmakers chair the gaming committees in the respective chambers.Both lawmakers’ bills call for New York to operate sports betting like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Indiana. Each of the state’s casinos currently would get the chance to partner with two mobile operators.Cuomo, though, wants the state to be in more control. He wants a system more like the lottery allowing the state to derive more of the revenue. That approach resembles what Rhode Island, Montana, New Hampshire, Delaware, and Oregon have implemented.As Addabbo indicated, though, those states combined have a smaller population than New York.“I’m concerned about New York having a product that can handle the volume and the growing, expanding the market,” Addabbo told Casino.org.He also noted that Oregon leaders are already having second thoughts about their lottery-managed sports betting product.Just last month, Gov. Kate Brown requested that the state’s legislature take up a bill allowing the Oregon Racing Commission to regulate sports betting and grant licenses.“So, if it’s not good enough for Oregon, I don’t think it should be good enough for New York,” Addabbo said.

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Instant Play Blackjack

Casino Business Talking Points: Pent-Up Demand Will Fuel New ‘Roaring Twenties’


Posted on: February 15, 2021, 01:56h. 
Last updated on: February 15, 2021, 02:23h.
Casino executives and gaming industry leaders continue to forecast a strong recovery, primarily due to pent-up demand.
D Casino owner Derek Stevens, seen here last fall inside his new property Circa, is bullish on the gaming industry’s post-coronavirus recovery. The downtown Las Vegas visionary expects pent-up demand to generate a new “roaring twenties.” (Image: Las Vegas Review-Journal)The frequent talking points from gaming industry brass recently target a new “Roaring Twenties.” Wynn Resorts CEO Matt Maddox was first to link the current decade to the 1920s, when the US experienced economic prosperity and ushered in a new culture highlighted by modernity and the changing role of women.“I think it will be similar to the Roaring Twenties after the pandemic of 1918 and 1919,” Maddox said of the US gaming industry’s post-COVID-19 outlook.Downtown Las Vegas casino magnate Derek Stevens issued a similar sentiment last Friday.A lot of people have said it’s going to be like the Roaring Twenties,” the Circa owner told KTNV. ” Well, it may be, because I think there is so much demand to be able to get back out of the house and have a little bit of fun.”The Roaring Twenties were unfortunately followed by the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and Great Depression. But that isn’t stopping casino heads from believing that the gaming industry is poised to enter its own roaring period in the 2020s.Industry Bets on Roaring 2020sMaddox and Stevens aren’t alone in believing that travel and hospitality will flourish once Americans feel safe. The notion is backed outside of Las Vegas, too.In Atlantic City, Steve Callender, Caesars Entertainment’s top executive in town who chairs the Casino Association of New Jersey, said he’s “guardedly optimistic.”It’s going to take a couple months for the vaccine to be widely distributed. But there is incredible pent-up demand,” Callender told the AP. Bob McDevitt, Atlantic City’s top casino union rep, said the “pent-up demand is going to be explosive.”Mohegan Gaming and Entertainment, in a filing with the SEC, said its business “has been optimized to benefit from … significant pent-up demand for leisure consumption in the months and years ahead.”Bill Miller, president of the American Gaming Association, expressed his confidence of a 2021 recovery.There’s huge pent-up demand for gaming,” Miller said. “I’m upbeat about the second half of the year in particular. As vaccines roll out, people will be excited to travel, hungry for entertainment, and desperate to get out and have fun again.”Research suggests there’s pent-up demand not just for fun, but also for non-remote business. A recent study commissioned by the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority found that 91 percent of former convention-goers miss in-person events.Casino Expansion Continues2020 was unlike any year prior for the US gaming industry. And casino companies are betting it will be unlike any in the near future, too.Despite the industry’s struggles over the past 12 months, casinos are continuing to invest in new markets. States that recently legalized commercial gambling include Illinois, Virginia, and Nebraska.New casinos also continue to come to Pennsylvania, which has surpassed New Jersey to become the second-richest gaming state in terms of revenue, behind only Nevada. Live! Philadelphia, a $700 million integrated casino resort, opened this month.

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Sands China จะเปิดตัวพร้อมกับการเปิดเฟสแรกของ The Londoner Macao ในวันที่ 8 กุมภาพันธ์นี้

PokerStars ขอแนะนำโปรโมชั่น Tetris Spin & Go

Clear Lines ระดับขั้นสูง PokerStars ไม่เคยหลีกเลี่ยงจากโปรโมชั่นพิเศษของ Spin & Go แต่สิ่งที่โป๊กเกอร์ออนไลน์เพิ่งประกาศนั้นแตกต่างกันเล็กน้อย แม้ว่าจะยังคงเป็นเพียงการโปรโมต Spin & Go กับลีดเดอร์บอร์ดและสิ่งอื่น ๆ แต่คราวนี้ PokerStars ได้ร่วมมือกับ Tetris ซึ่งเป็นวิดีโอเกมที่ดีที่สุดตลอดกาล Tetris Spin & Go เริ่มวันนี้ 15 กุมภาพันธ์และวิ่งถึง 28 มีนาคม มีสิบระดับให้เลือกซื้อตั้งแต่ $ 0.25 ถึง $ 500 จุดมุ่งหมายของการโปรโมตคือการล้างเส้นเช่นเดียวกับในเกม Tetris แต่ในกรณีนี้จะไม่มีบล็อกล้ม เพียงแค่โป๊กเกอร์ เราไม่เคยบอกว่ามันจะมีคณิตศาสตร์ในการทำให้ “เส้นสะอาด” คุณเพียงแค่ต้องเล่นเกม Tetris Spin & Go ที่ทำเครื่องหมายไว้ ผู้เล่นลบบรรทัดตามความสมบูรณ์ของพวกเขา แต่แต่ละช่องจะมีเส้นว่างอย่างน้อยหนึ่งเส้น จำนวนการเว้นบรรทัดไม่เพียงขึ้นอยู่กับลำดับการเข้าเส้นชัยเท่านั้น แต่ยังขึ้นอยู่กับตัวคูณด้วย เกมตัวคูณสองจะมีการหักบัญชีสี่สามและสองบรรทัดสำหรับอันดับที่หนึ่งสองและสามตามลำดับ ในเกมที่มีตัวคูณ 3 เท่าจำนวนบรรทัดที่เคลียร์จะลดลงทีละบรรทัด ที่ตัวคูณใด ๆ ที่สูงกว่านี้การกำหนดศูนย์ของเส้นคือสองหนึ่งและหนึ่ง ทุก ๆ ห้าบรรทัดเลเวลของผู้เล่นจะเพิ่มขึ้น ความหมายของสิ่งนี้คือยิ่งเลเวลสูงขึ้นผู้เล่นจะได้รับคะแนนจากสกอร์บอร์ดมากขึ้น สูตรสำหรับคะแนนค่อนข้างง่าย เส้นสะอาดหนึ่งเส้นให้ 40 คะแนนมากกว่าระดับของผู้เล่น ดังนั้นสำหรับระดับ 0 คือ 40 x (0 + 1) ซึ่งก็คือ 40 คะแนน สองบรรทัดเคลียร์รางวัล 100 x (n + 1) โดยที่ n คือระดับของผู้เล่น ถ้าคุณล้างสามบรรทัดสูตรคือ 300 x (n + 1) และถ้าคุณล้างสี่บรรทัดสูตรคือ 1200 x (n + 1) ดังนั้นจึงเป็นสิ่งสำคัญในการเพิ่มระดับ เกมเหนือมนุษย์เกมจบ! และเนื่องจากโปรโมชั่นนี้อิงจากวิดีโอเกมอย่างหลวม ๆ จึงมีโอกาสที่ข้อความ “GAME OVER” จะปรากฏบนหน้าจอ ในกรณีนี้เกมโอเวอร์หมายความว่าโอกาสในการทำคะแนนได้มากขึ้นในกระดานคะแนนรายวันสิ้นสุดลงและผู้เล่นจะต้องรอจนกว่าจะถึงวันถัดไปจึงจะลองอีกครั้ง “สนามเด็กเล่น” ยังประกอบด้วย 20 ระดับโดยผู้เล่นแต่ละคนจะเริ่มจากศูนย์ ขึ้นอยู่กับตำแหน่งของผู้เล่นใน Tetris Spin & Go ระดับของผู้เล่นอาจเพิ่มขึ้นหรือลดลง ความเป็นไปได้ของการเคลื่อนที่ขึ้นลงหรือไม่ขึ้นลงโดยสิ้นเชิงจะแตกต่างกันไปตามระดับและตำแหน่งสิ้นสุด การชนะ Spin & Go ทำให้มั่นใจได้ว่าอย่างน้อยระดับยังคงเหมือนเดิม การสูญเสียรับประกันว่าจะไม่เพิ่มขึ้น มันไม่มีวันลดลงถึงระดับ 0 หรือ 1 แต่สถานะรหัสสีของสนามแข่งขัน (เขียวเหลืองแดง) บ่งบอกว่าเกมจะจบลงแค่ไหน ผู้เล่นที่ติดอันดับ 100 อันดับแรกตั้งแต่ $ 0.25 ถึง $ 5 จะได้รับรางวัลเงินสด 50 อันดับแรกจ่ายที่ 10 เหรียญและ 25 เหรียญและ 20 อันดับแรกจ่ายที่ 50 เหรียญและ 100 เหรียญ สำหรับลีดเดอร์บอร์ด $ 250 มีเพียงห้าอันดับแรกเท่านั้นที่จ่ายและมีเพียงผู้ชนะเท่านั้นที่ได้รับเงินจากลีดเดอร์บอร์ด $ 500

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GambleAware Charity Review

Criticisms of Michael Slepian’s Stanford study on poker tells and hand movements (published 2015)


Some places the study was featured.
The following is reposted from a 2015 piece I wrote for Bluff magazine. It was originally located at this URL but has become unavailable due to Bluff going out of business. I saw this study mentioned recently in Maria Konnikova’s book ‘The Biggest Bluff’ and was reminded about this piece and noticed it was offline, so I wanted to share it again. A few notes on this piece:

The original title below and was more negative-sounding than I liked; Bluff chose it. Also, if I could rewrite this piece now, I’d probably choose less negative-sounding phrasing in some places. 
Regardless of the exact factors that might be at work in the found correlation, I realize it’s scientifically interesting that a significant correlation was found. But I also think it’s possible to draw simplistic and wrong conclusions from the study, and my piece hopefully gives more context about the factors that might be at work.
Image on left taken from Michael Slepian’s media page.

The Slepian Study on Betting Motions Doesn’t Pass Muster
A 2013 study¹ conducted at Stanford University by graduate student Michael Slepian and associates found a correlation between the “smoothness” of a betting motion and the strength of the bettor’s hand. In a nutshell, there was a positive correlation found between betting motions perceived as “smooth” and “confident” and strong hands. The quality of the betting motions was judged by having experiment participants watch short clips of players making bets (taken from the 2009 WSOP Main Event) and estimate the hand strength of those bets.
This experiment has gotten a lot of press over the last couple years. I first heard about it on NPR. Since, I’ve seen it referenced in poker blogs and articles and in a few mainstream news articles. I still occasionally hear people talk about it at the table when I play. I’ve had friends and family members reference it and send me links to it. It’s kind of weird how much attention it received, considering the tons of interesting studies that are constantly being done, but I guess it can be chalked up to the mystique and “sexiness” of poker tells.

The article had more than casual interest for me. I’m a former professional poker player and the author of two books on poker behavior: Reading Poker Tells and Verbal Poker Tells. I’ve been asked quite a few times about my opinion on this study, and I’ve been meaning to look at the study more closely and write up my thoughts for a while.
In this article, I’ll give some criticisms of the study and some suggestions for how this study (and similar studies) could be done better. This isn’t to denigrate the work of the experiment’s designers. I think this is an interesting study, and I hope it will encourage similar studies using poker as a means to study human behavior. But I do think it was flawed in a few ways, and it could be improved in many ways.
That’s not to say that I think their conclusion is wrong; in fact, in my own experience, I think their conclusion is correct. I do, however, think it’s a very weak general correlation and will only be practically useful if you have a player-specific behavioral baseline. My main point is that this study is not enough, on its own, to cause us to be confident about the conclusion.
I’ll give a few reasons for why I think the study is flawed, but the primary underlying reason is a common one for studies involving poker: the study’s organizers just don’t know enough about how poker works. I’ve read about several experiments involving poker where the organizers were very ignorant about some basic aspects of poker, and this affected the way the tests were set up and the conclusions that were reached (and this probably applies not just to poker-related studies but to many studies that involve an activity that requires a lot of experience to understand well).
Poker can seem deceptively simple to people first learning it, and even to people who have played it for decades. Many bad players lose money at poker while believing that they’re good, or even great players. In the same way, experiment designers may falsely believe they understand the factors involved in a poker hand, while being far off the mark.
Here are the flaws, as I see them, in this study:
1. The experimenters refer to all WSOP entrants as ‘professional poker players.’
This first mistake wouldn’t directly affect the experiment, but it does point to a basic misunderstanding of poker and the World Series of Poker, which might indirectly affect other aspects of the experiment and its conclusions.
Here are a couple examples of this from the study:
The World Series of Poker (WSOP), originating in 1970, brings together professional poker players every year (from the study’s supplemental materials)
These findings are notable because the players in the stimulus clips were highly expert professionals competing in the high-stakes WSOP tournament.
The WSOP Main Event is open to anyone and most entrants are far from being professional poker players. Categorizing someone’s poker skill can be difficult and subjective, but Kevin Mathers, a long-time poker industry worker, estimates that only 20% of WSOP Main Event entrants are professional (or professional-level) players.
This also weakens the conclusion that the results are impressive due to the players analyzed being professional-level. While the correlation found in this experiment is still interesting, it is somewhat expected that amateur players would have behavioral inconsistencies. I’d be confident in predicting that a similar study done on only video clips of bets made by professional poker players would not find such a clear correlation.
2. Hand strength is based on comparing players’ hands
This is a line from the study that explains their methodology for categorizing a player’s hand as ‘weak’ or ‘strong’:
Each player’s objective likelihood of winning during the bet was known (WSOP displays these statistics on-screen; however, we kept this information from participants by obscuring part of the screen).
They relied on the on-screen percentage graphics, which are displayed beside a player’s hand graphics in the broadcast. These graphics show the likelihood of a player’s hand winning; it does this by comparing it to the other players’ known hands. This makes it an illogical way to categorize whether a player believes he is betting a weak or strong hand.
If this isn’t clear, here’s a quick example to make my point:
A player has QQ and makes an all-in bet on a turn board of Q-10-10-8. Most people would say that this player has a strong hand and has every reason to believe he has a strong hand. But, if his opponent had 10-10, the player with Q-Q would have a 2.27% chance of winning with one card to come. According to this methodology, the player with the Q-Q would be judged as having a weak hand; if the test participants categorized that bet as representing a strong hand, they would be wrong.
It’s not stated in the study or the supplemental materials if the experimenters accounted for such obvious cases of how using the percentage graphics might skew the results. It’s also not stated how the experimenters would handle river (last-round) bets, when one hand has a 100 percent winning percentage and the losing hand has 0 percent (the only exception would be a tie).
It’s admittedly difficult to come up with hard-and-fast rules for categorizing hand strength for the purposes of such an experiment. As someone who has thought more than most about this problem, for the purpose of analyzing and categorizing poker tells, I know it’s a difficult task. But using the known percentages of one hand beating another known hand is clearly a flawed approach.
The optimal approach would probably be to come up with a system that pits a poker hand against a logical hand range, considering the situation, or even a random hand range, and uses that percentage-of-winning to rank the player’s hand strength. If this resulted in too much hand-strength ambiguity, the experiment designers could throw out all hands where the hand strength fell within a certain medium-strength range. Such an approach would make it more likely that only strong hand bets and weak hand bets were being used and, equally important for an experiment like this, that the player believed he or she was betting either a strong or weak hand.
3. Situational factors were not used to categorize betting motions
When considering poker-related behavior, situations are very important. A small continuation-bet on the flop is different in many ways from an all-in bet on the river. One way they are different: a small bet is unlikely to cause stress in the bettor, even if the bettor has a weak hand.
Also, a player making a bet on an early round has a chance for improving his hand; whereas a player betting on the river has no chance to improve his hand. When a player bets on the river, he will almost always know whether he is bluffing or value-betting; this is often not the case on earlier rounds, when hand strength is more ambiguous and undefined.
This experiment had no system for selecting the bets they chose for inclusion in the study. The usability of the clips was apparently based only on whether the clip meant certain visual needs of the experiment: i.e., did the footage show the entirety of the betting action and did it show the required amount of the bettor’s body?
From the study:
Research assistants, blind to experimental hypotheses, extracted each usable video in each installment, and in total extracted 22 videos (a standard number of stimuli for such studies; Ambady & Rosenthal, 1993) for Study 2 in the main text.
Study 1 videos required a single player be in the frame from the chest-up, allowing for whole-body, face-only, and arms-only videos to be created by cropping the videos. These videos were therefore more rare, and the research assistants only acquired 20 such videos.
The fact that clips were chosen only based on what they showed is not necessarily a problem. If a hand can be accurately categorized as strong or weak, then it doesn’t necessarily matter when during a hand it occurred. If there is a correlation between perceived betting motion quality and hand strength, then it will probably make itself known no matter the context of the bet.
Choosing bets only from specific situations would have made the experiment stronger and probably would have led to more definite conclusions. It could also help address the problem of categorizing hand strength. For example, if the experiment designers had only considered bets above a certain size that had occurred on the river (when all cards are out and there are no draws or semi-bluffs to be made), then that would result in polarized hand strengths (i.e., these bets would be very likely to be made with either strong or weak hands).
Also, the experiment’s method for picking clips sounds like it could theoretically result in all strong-hand bets being picked, or all weak-hand bets being picked. There is nothing in the experiment description that requires a certain amount of weak hands or strong hands. This is not in itself bad, but could affect the experiment in unforeseen ways.
For example, if most of the betting motion clips chosen were taken from players betting strong hands (which would not be surprising, as most significant bets, especially post-flop, are for value), then this could introduce some unforeseen bias into the experiment. One way this might happen: when a video clip shows only the betting motion (and not, for example, the bettor’s entire torso or just the face, as were shown to some study groups), this focus might emphasize the bet in the viewer’s mind and make the bet seem stronger. And if most of the hands-only betting clips were of strong-hand bets (and I have no idea how many were), the study participants watching only the hand-motion betting clips would falsely appear to be making good guesses.
My main point here is that thinking about the situational factors of a betting motion, and incorporating that into the experiment in some way, would have resulted in less ambiguity about the results. (It appears that it was difficult to find usable clips from a single WSOP event; in that case, the experimenters could just add footage from another WSOP Main Event to the study.)
4. The number of chips bet was not taken into account
The experiment designers did not take into account the chips that were bet. In their words:
During betting, each player pushes poker chips into the center of the table. Each chip has a specific color, which indicates a specific value. These values range from $25 to $100,000. This range of chip values has a crucial consequence for the current work. The number of chips does not correlate with the quality of the hand (see Table 1A in the main text). Players could move a stack of 20 chips into the center of the table, and this could be worth $500 or $2,000,000 (the winner of the 2009 WSOP won $8,547,042, thus the latter bet magnitude is a bet that can be made in the WSOP). Because no participants were professional poker players, nor considered themselves poker experts, they were not aware of chip values. They could not, then, use the number of chips as a valid cue to judge poker hand quality.
It’s true that your average person would not know what the chip colors at the WSOP Main Event mean. But it seems naïve to think that seeing the chips being bet couldn’t possibly have an effect on the experiment.
For one thing, the number of chips being bet could bias a participant to think a bet was stronger or weaker, whether correctly or incorrectly. What if all the strong-hand bets in the study were also bets that involved a lot of chips? (This is not implausible because smaller bets with weak hands are common early in a hand, when bets are small, whereas larger bets later in the hand are more likely to represent strong hands.) And what if some of the study participants were able to deduce (consciously or unconsciously) the strength of the bet from the number of chips?
Also, it’s possible that some of the test participants were knowledgeable (consciously or not) about some WSOP chip colors and what their denominations were. Or they were able to deduce (consciously or not), from the arrangement and number of chips, what the chip values were. (For example, large denomination chips are generally required to be kept at the front of a player’s stack.)
Again, this could have been addressed by selecting bets taken only from specific situations and only of certain bet sizes. If all bets chosen were above a certain bet size, and this was communicated to the study participants, then this would have lessened the impact of the chips being able to be seen.
5. Quality of “smoothness” was subjective
The experiment was based on the perceptions of study participants watching the assembled video clips. It was not based on objective measurements of what constitutes “smoothness” of a betting motion. This was a known issue in the experiment:
Thus, both player confidence and smoothness judgments significantly predicted likelihoods of winning, which suggests that movement smoothness might be a valid cue for assessing poker hand quality. It is unknown, however, how participants interpreted “smoothness” or whether the players’ movements that participants rated as smooth were truly smoother than other players’ movements. Other physical factors, such as speed, likely played a role.
This is not a major criticism; I think using perception is a fine way to find a correlation, especially for a preliminary study. But I think it does mean that we have no reason to be confident in the idea that smoothness of betting motion is correlated with hand strength. If there is are correlations between betting motion and hand strength (which I believe there are), these could be due to other aspects of arm motion or hand motion, such as: the betting speed, the position of the hands, the height of the hand, or other, more obscure, factors.
In summary
Again, I don’t mean to denigrate the experiment designers and the work they’ve done. I think this was an interesting experiment, and I think it’s probable the correlation they noticed exists (however weak the correlation may be).
Also, as someone who is very interested in poker behavior, I’d love to see similar studies be done. My main goal in writing these criticisms and suggestions was to emphasize that poker is complex, as is poker behavior. There are many behavioral factors in a seemingly simple hand of poker and taking these factors into account can make an experiment stronger and the results more conclusive.
Patricia Cardner, PhD, EdD, is a poker player and the author of Positive Poker, a book about the psychological characteristics of professional poker players. She had this to say about poker’s use in scientific studies:
“While researchers often have the best of intentions, it is difficult for them to fully understand the nuances of poker. Researchers who reach out to poker players for help can make more informed decisions about the research areas they choose to pursue, increase reliability and validity, and improve the overall quality of their results and conclusions.”
¹: Slepian, M.L., Young, S.G., Rutchick, A.M. & Ambady, N. Quality of Professional Players’ Poker Hands Is Perceived Accurately From Arm Motions. Psychological Science (2013) 24(11) 2335–2338.

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